11 Bracket Picking Rules You Should NEVER Break!
The only sports bettor on Forbes recent list of Gambling Gurus, RJ Bell of Pregame.com provides bracket rules that can make a difference in any March Madness office pool.
Las Vegas, NV (3/14/08) Over 12 BILLION dollars is expected to be bet on the 2008 NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament. Bracket-style office pools are expected to have 40 million Americans take part. No gambling event is bigger, and RJ Bell of Pregame.com has the math-backed stats that can help anyone win.
1st Round:
- Be very selective picking any team below a #12 seed.
#16 seeds are 0 for 92. #15 seeds are 4 for 92. #13 and #14 seeds win less than 18% combined.
- Dont be shy about picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds. Give special consideration to picking #12 seeds; they have won 11 of 28 matchups vs. #5 seeds the last seven years. #9 seeds have a strong winning record vs. #8 seeds.
2nd Round:
- Advance #1 seeds almost automatically into the 3rd Round they win their first two games 87% of the time.
- Keep advancing the #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One. They win almost half the time in Round Two (14 of 29 for #12 seeds; 17 of 35 for #10 seeds).
- Seeds lower than #12 DONT win in the 2nd round..
Only 6 of 368 teams that have advanced past Round 2 were seeded lower than #12 (less than 2%).
Sweet 16:
- Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8
No reason to buck the math: Nearly 70% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (thats a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game)!
- Advance no team lower than a #11 seed into the Elite 8 . . . 20 have made it to the Sweet 16, but only 1 has ever advanced.
Elite Eight:
- Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
Amazingly, exactly one or two #1 seeds have made the Final Four 19 of the last 23 years.
- Advance no team lower than a #8 seed to the Final Four. Only 2 of 92 Final Four teams have been seeded lower than #8.
Final Four:
- Advance NO team below a 6th seed to the Championship game. Not a single one has made it in the last 22 years.
Championship Game:
- Pick a #4 seed or higher to win it all.
For 19 straight years the champion has been a 4 seed or higher!
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